Friday, December 9, 2016

Um. Oh.

Here's the thing. I worry quite frequently that the people who read my blog regularly, a good chunk of whom are my friends and family, probably, will think I'm too extreme. Not in my views about how the world should be. I'm proud of my extreme idealism in that respect. No, I'm afraid that you'll think I'm going too far into conspiracy theories or doomsday scenarios.

The truth is, it's hard to call the "alt-right" Nazis. There's this constant nagging voice in the back of my head that says I'm exaggerating, that I'm being ridiculous and embarrassing myself. Even after the video of white supremacist conference full of Nazi salutes to Trump. And there's a reason I feel that way. It's because, through media, we've turned Nazis and white supremacists into boogeymen. They've been so sensationalized and caricatured that it's hard to image they were ever real, let alone that any might still be around. Or that they're more than a few [insert ableist slur here] guys in Kentucky, or that they could possibly be a threat.

But they are. And they always have been.

Before Trump won the election (or was projected to get the majority of the electoral college votes), I, clearly, had not yet accepted that. I thought that trolls and Men's Rights Activists were a minor threat via their toxic rhetoric, and that though there were still plenty of everyday racists, almost none of them were Nazi level. I felt that things were worse than most average people out there knew, but I was hesitant to go into the territory of societal collapse or what most people call "conspiracy theories."

Can you guess where this blog post is going?

In spite of everything, including the typical tone of this blog, I consider myself a general optimist. I think people are basically good, and the problem is that most people live and grow up in toxic conditions, emotionally and mentally (and to a certain point, physically). And I went on believing that things would be pretty much okay, for most of us, or at least for me. Partially because of optimism and partially because it's hard to feel how I'm feeling right now.

You ready? This is what's got me legitimately scared:

US Power Will Decline Under Trump, Says Futurist Who Predicted Soviet Collapse

That's not all he's predicted.

Galtung has also accurately predicted the 1978 Iranian revolution; the Tiananmen Square uprising of 1989 in China; the economic crises of 1987, 2008 and 2011; and even the 9/11 attacks—among other events, according to the late Dietrich Fischer, academic director of the European University Center for Peace Studies.

And it's not just a "decline" in power that he's predicting for the country I live in.

Back in 2000, Galtung first set out his prediction that the “US empire” would collapse within 25 years. After the election of President Bush, though, he revised that forecast five years forward because, he argued, Bush’s policies of extreme militarism would be an accelerant.

So. We have three years? Maybe?

Galtung told Motherboard that Trump would probably continue this trajectory of accelerated decline—and may even make it happen quicker. Of course, with typical scientific caution, he said he would prefer to see what Trump’s actual policies are before voicing a clear verdict.

Oh great, cool, whenever you're ready with that, buddy. Take your time and all that, haha.

I've brushed off a lot of scary predictions in recent years, because it was easier that way. But predictions of bad things keep. Coming. True. And this one makes a lot of sense.

Firstly, Galtung's prediction model is based on contradictions. According to this guy, there are strong patterns of intensifying contradictions in 10 examples of historic empire collapse. And by "contradictions," he means lies and hypocrisy. Saying you'll do one thing and then doing the opposite. Saying doing a thing is bad and then doing that thing.

What have I been talking about here lately? Was it how Trump voters got scammed and the baffling hypocrisy of the "alt-right"?

I almost don't want to share this, because what can most of us do but continue to live our lives? Who needs this kind of anxiety? Or to know that their dreams are dead before they could ever start to become a reality?

But you'll probably be better off with a decent warning. Three years. Put aside some food and supplies, maybe. Learn some practical skills. Buy some of those non-GMO seeds? The ones that will make more seeds, I mean. I guess I'll start reading up on what tends to happen during an empire collapse. Money may become worthless. I think you'll be better off stocking up on antibiotics than gold, though.

I can't believe I'm saying this shit. I hope Galtung's wrong. I hope we all end up okay. But unless something really cool happens this month, I don't think things will ever be the same. I hope it ends up being for the better.

Stick together. Help each other. Do good.

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